Do you remember hearing commodity analysts on cable TV scream incessantly for months in 2008 about a "massive commodities breakout"--only to suffer the biggest commodity collapse in history? And then when they hyped about a "deflationary depression" day after day at the end of 2008 and in the beginning of 2009, we thereafter had the strongest equity and commodity rally since the Great Depression? In recent months, we have once again been hearing about how commodities are hopeless and how emerging-market assets will continue to underperform indefinitely. It is critical to know when media hype is biased nonsense with no factual basis.
Have you noticed that practically no one talks about the behavior of top corporate insiders? While most investors repeatedly buy high and sell low, certain corporate insiders have a much more impressive long-term track record and can be followed. If you had been reading True Contrarian, you would have not only been buying long-dated U.S. Treasuries near all important lows since 2006, but you would also have established substantial short positions from 2007 through August 2008 in global equity funds to profit handsomely from 2008's massive worldwide stock-market correction. A similar if perhaps choppier plunge for risk assets will likely lead to a major global equity bottom around 2017. While the media repeatedly emphasize buying stocks, it is probably even more important to know when to purchase long-dated U.S. Treasuries and their funds including TLT and ZROZ which are consistently among the top performers in any bear market--and often result in greater profits than selling short stocks while providing consistent dividends exceeding 4% annualized. Another fund was introduced in recent years which is a little-known alternative to selling short directly, and has two fund managers with fabulous long-term track records during equity bear markets--along with the unusual ability to achieve long-term capital gains while selling short.
When almost everyone was gloomy toward equities, commodities, junk bonds, and practically all other risk assets in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, True Contrarian was one of the few advisory services which ignored the gloomy hype and, more importantly, recommended specific funds and shares for purchase before everyone else realized that we were on the verge of a historic worldwide reversal of fortune. GDX, KOL, and RSX were among my top picks; KOL was the 8th-best-performing mutual fund of more than 18 thousand funds in 2009, while RSX was 11th best. I recommended several closed-end equity funds which invested in stocks similar to the S&P 500 Index, but since these funds sported discounts exceeding 20% they provided significant additional gains in addition to the amount by which the stock market rebounded--at no additional risk. True Contrarian currently recommends purchasing strongly disfavored assets which have recently traded at or near their lowest levels since the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, including specific funds of commodity producers and selected emerging-market securities. Most analysts and advisors have been talking about deflation lasting for several more years and continued gains for the U.S. dollar, just as they were convinced six years ago that it would take years for stocks to recover from the 2007-2009 bear market. Instead, we had one of the strongest and most rapid U.S. equity rebounds in history beginning in early 2009. Current forecasts for persistent worldwide deflation will prove to be badly off the mark as inflation unexpectedly and dramatically reasserts itself on a global basis throughout the remainder of 2015 and for part or all of 2016. The U.S. dollar, which likely peaked on March 15, 2015 at a 12-year top, will surprise almost everyone by slumping probably to its lowest levels versus most global currencies since 2011.
If you're tired of constantly going with the herd in buying high and selling low, then you should consider a subscription to True Contrarian. I will send roughly one dozen updates each month, including an update during trading hours whenever I am buying or selling anything. My philosophy is simple: open any position only when the risk/reward scenario is most favorable and least popular, and close it once it has become clearly unfavorable and wildly desired.
Whenever I make any trade, I send an intraday email telling readers exactly what I bought or sold, how much as a percentage of my total net worth, and at exactly what price. That way, readers can exactly mimic my actions, and can know exactly how much profit or loss has been generated once these positions are later closed. I also list all of my current good-until-canceled orders which are often even more important in creating a total asset allocation strategy.
Of highest priority, I give frequent lessons on money management: how to allocate your assets across sector groups; how to build a ladder of orders; how to be patient to wait for a few ideal trades instead of rushing to do dozens of mediocre ones. I explain how the various investment classes are closely interrelated, instead of trying to invest with blinders to the rest of the worldwide financial markets. The most important investing principle involves the discipline of gradually accumulating positions and doing the opposite of what your emotions are telling you.
I also provide detailed email support to all subscribers, answering any questions about asset allocations and giving customized guidance for those who desire help with how to place a ladder of orders, or which funds to emphasize based upon the subscriber's individual financial situation.
This subscription is currently available at an annual rate of $179.50 (U.S. dollars) per year. Should you decide at any time to cancel, you will receive a full, pro-rated refund for the unused portion. If, instead, you would prefer a shorter term of subscription, you can select three months for $75. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like, free of charge, during the lifetime of the subscription.
To make it completely clear exactly what a one-year subscription involves, here is first a list of what will NOT be included:
NO DAY TRADING: I am not a day trader, and will not recommend buying something on a Tuesday in order to sell it on Wednesday, or even on the following Wednesday. I usually hold positions for a period of at least several months and sometimes for a few years. On the rare occasion that I do recommend closing a position which was recently opened, it is because I realize that an unexpected change in circumstances caused my original analysis to be incorrect, and that one should therefore take a small loss before it grows into a big loss.
NO PSYCHOBABBLE: I am not here to act as a shrink. So many web sites, when their recommendations are going poorly, resort to worthless clichés such as "you've got to hang in there for the long run" or "given the reality of the global economy, the bull market is sure to resume eventually." If you need constant psychological reassurance, you're better off subscribing to a different newsletter, or you might consider contacting one of those psychics that advertises on TV at 2:30 a.m.
NO WISHY-WASHY OPINIONS: Regardless of whether my predictions are accurate or not, I will not speak out of both sides of my mouth. I will never say to hold something as long as it doesn't go below a particular price, since that's sure to confuse readers. In my opinion, the worst sin of a newsletter writer is to confuse readers with ambiguity or with all kinds of complicated scenarios that are impossible to follow. If I recommend buying a particular fund at 17, I will recommend buying more if it drops to 16. If I recommend selling some at 44, I will recommend selling more if it rises further to 45. If I am wrong, I will be wrong with bells on, loudly and clearly.
Now that you know what the service will NOT include, here is a list of what I WILL do my best to provide on a timely basis:
CONSISTENT, INTELLIGENT ANALYSIS: Regular readers of my web site know that I strongly value an easily understandable explanation of what the future will bring in the financial markets. Anyone can develop a plausible story of why something happened last year; very few can explain logically what will most likely happen next year. If one understands how reliable patterns in the financial markets characteristically develop, then one can more confidently invest. Having a solid grasp of the underlying forces is critical in having the courage to add to a position which initially moves in the opposite direction.
TIMELY, CLEAR RECOMMENDATIONS: If a particular fund appears to be making an important bottom on a Thursday at 10:15 a.m., I will send an email stating that it should be purchased as soon as possible. I will also include full information about my open orders which are usually even more important in being able to design an appropriate total asset allocation. It is usually the case that bottoming or topping is a process, rather than an event, so that only a small percentage of one's total intended position should be committed at any given time. I will clearly identify why particular funds or shares are a better bargain at any given moment, and exactly what limit prices should be used--or whether market orders are preferable.
ALL POSITIONS WILL BE CLOSED IN A TIMELY FASHION: A huge percentage of newsletter writers are always recommending buying certain shares, but never seem to be selling them. Other writers mysteriously abandon positions which are performing poorly. To me, this is ridiculous. Knowing when to sell is often even more important than knowing when to buy, since profits don't really exist until something which has been bought is finally sold. Sometimes, the only correct action is to act swiftly and close out a position at a loss. All opening positions will be diligently followed through all the way until they are closed, without exception.
A PRECISE PLAN OF ACTION WILL BE DEVELOPED: The financial markets often act in unexpected ways. Having a detailed plan of action, so that one responds intelligently to whatever happens, is usually far more important than any other factor in achieving success in the financial markets. I will explain how to establish long-term goals, and how to make periodic adjustments in order to achieve those objectives. The principles of money management, the ideal way to accumulate positions, and how to optimize one's asset allocation will be described in detailed essays.
ANY QUESTIONS? If you have any questions about this subscription service, or about anything else, click here to contact me, or send an email to email@example.com. I will gladly send a few recent updates upon request.
IF YOU ARE STILL INTERESTED, this subscription is being offered at $179.50 U.S. dollars per year. You can choose instead to pay $75 for a trial period of three months. All subscriptions are fully refundable for their pro-rated unused portion. If you decide to subscribe on September 1, 2015, then your subscription will continue through September 1, 2016. You will receive sufficient notice before expiration, so that you will be able to continue receiving your subscription without interruption. You can resubscribe at any time for as many years as you like; your expiration date will automatically be updated accurately by PayPal to reflect the full duration of the extension. For example, if your current expiration date is October 16, 2015 and you resubscribe today for two years, then your new expiration date will be October 16, 2017. Note #1: if you want your subscription to be sent to an email address which differs from your PayPal email address, please list your desired email address where it says "E-Mail Address, If Different:". Note #2: if you do not have an email address, then please do not subscribe. The reason is that any hardcopy equivalent would not be sufficiently timely. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like without charge during the lifetime of the subscription. Please understand that the information contained in the email is not intended to be resent to nonsubscribers or posted on any publicly accessible web site, and any such action if discovered will be considered as legally binding you to pay for a full-year subscription for each such nonsubscriber.
TO SUBSCRIBE: PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted no matter where you reside; simply click on the button below, which has a link to an official, secure PayPal page for payment. If you wish to subscribe for two or more years, please change the quantity from its default of "1" to your preferred number of years. If you prefer instead to send a check, then please send one from a U.S. bank or, if you wish, kindly remit a money order in U.S. dollars from any bank, U.S. or otherwise. My address is Steven Jon Kaplan, 300 Beech Street, Kearny, NJ 07032-3102, USA. Your subscription will begin as soon as payment is verified. If you are paying by check or money order, please make it payable to Steven Jon Kaplan, and be sure to include your email address (very important!).
Below are five sample updates and two special intraday updates. I will be pleased to send you additional ones upon request: