Do you remember hearing commodity analysts on cable TV scream incessantly for months in 2008 about a "massive commodities breakout"--only to see the biggest commodity collapse in history? And then when they hyped about a "deflationary depression" day after day at the end of 2008 and in the beginning of 2009, we thereafter had the strongest equity and commodity rally since the Great Depression? In recent months, we have once again been hearing about how commodities are hopeless and how emerging-market assets will continue to underperform indefinitely. It is critical to know when media hype is biased nonsense with no factual basis.
Have you noticed that practically no one talks about the behavior of top corporate insiders? If you had been reading True Contrarian, you would have not only been buying long-dated U.S. Treasuries near all important lows since 2006, but you would also have established substantial short positions from 2007 through August 2008 in global equity funds to profit handsomely from 2008's massive worldwide stock-market correction. A similar if perhaps choppier plunge for risk assets will likely lead to a major global equity bottom around 2016-2017. While the media repeatedly emphasize buying stocks, it is probably even more important to know when to purchase long-dated U.S. Treasuries and their funds including TLT and ZROZ which are consistently among the top performers in any bear market--and often result in greater profits than selling short stocks while providing consistent dividends exceeding 4% annualized. Another fund was introduced in recent years which is a little-known alternative to selling short directly, and has two fund managers with fabulous long-term track records during equity bear markets--along with the unusual ability to achieve long-term capital gains while selling short.
When almost everyone was gloomy toward equities, commodities, junk bonds, and practically all other risk assets in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, True Contrarian was one of the few advisory services which boldly proclaimed a bottom and, more importantly, recommended specific funds and shares for purchase before everyone else realized that we were on the verge of a historic worldwide reversal of fortune. GDX, KOL, and RSX were among my top picks; KOL was the 8th-best-performing mutual fund of more than 18 thousand funds in 2009, while RSX was 11th best. True Contrarian also recommended buying funds of commodity producers in August through December 2011 which proved to be quite profitable by the time these funds were sold in early February 2012. True Contrarian recommended purchasing the shares of commodity producers in May 2012 through July 2014 whenever they had slumped toward their lowest levels since July 2009 or earlier, along with buying emerging-market equities in August 2013 through April 2014. My biggest single purchase of August 2013 was SCIF, a fund of one hundred small companies in India, which doubled and was sold following Indian elections in 2014. Commodity-related and emerging-market assets have already been some of the top-performing assets of recent months and will be prominently featured among the biggest winners from the second half of 2013 through at least the first half of 2015. This is no coincidence; these sectors tend to consistently trounce the broader equity market whenever inflationary expectations "unexpectedly" reassert themselves.
If you're tired of constantly buying high and selling low, then you should consider a subscription to True Contrarian. I will send several updates each week, including an update during trading hours whenever I am buying or selling anything. My philosophy is simple: open any position only when the risk/reward scenario is most favorable and least popular, and close it once it has become clearly unfavorable and wildly desired.
Whenever I make any trade, I send an intraday email telling readers exactly what I bought or sold, how much as a percentage of my total net worth, and at exactly what price. That way, readers can exactly mimic my actions, and can know exactly how much profit or loss is created once these positions are later closed.
Even more importantly, I give frequent lessons on money management: how to allocate your assets across sector groups; how to build a ladder of orders; how to be patient to wait for a few ideal trades instead of rushing to do dozens of mediocre ones. I explain how the various investment classes are closely interrelated, instead of trying to invest with blinders to the rest of the worldwide financial markets.
I also provide detailed email support to all subscribers, answering any questions about asset allocations and giving customized guidance for those who desire help with how to place a ladder of orders, or which funds to emphasize based upon the subscriber's individual financial situation.
This subscription is currently available at an annual rate of $179.50 (U.S. dollars) per year. Should you decide at any time to cancel, you will receive a full, pro-rated refund for the unused portion. If, instead, you would prefer a shorter term of subscription, you can select three months for $75. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like, free of charge, during the lifetime of the subscription.
To make it completely clear exactly what a one-year subscription involves, here is first a list of what will NOT be included:
NO DAY TRADING: I am not a day trader, and will not recommend buying something on a Tuesday in order to sell it on Wednesday, or even on the following Wednesday. I usually hold positions for a period of at least several weeks, often several months, and sometimes for a year or two. On the rare occasion that I do recommend closing a position which was recently opened, it is because I realize that an unexpected change in circumstances caused my original analysis to be incorrect, and that one should therefore take a small loss before it grows into a big loss.
NO PSYCHOBABBLE: I am not here to act as a shrink. So many web sites, when their recommendations are going poorly, resort to worthless clichés such as "you've got to hang in there for the long run" or "given the twin deficits, gold's bull market is sure to resume eventually". If you need constant psychological reassurance, you're better off subscribing to a different newsletter, or you might consider contacting one of those psychics that advertises on TV at 2:30 a.m.
NO WISHY-WASHY OPINIONS: Regardless of whether my predictions are accurate or not, I will not speak out of both sides of my mouth. I will never say to hold something as long as it doesn't go below a particular price, since that's sure to confuse readers. I know of one very well-known web site that was relatively accurate in being bullish on gold and its shares for most of 2002 (and kept bragging loudly about it), but after making the disastrous decision to remain bullish for months beyond the peak, suddenly turned "neutral" on gold in early March 2003 when HUI plunged below 120. At the key buying opportunity of that year, faithful readers of that web site didn't know what to do with their gold mining shares. Should they sell them? Or just hold on and pray? When they should have been buying aggressively, they were totally baffled. By the time this web site turned bullish again, HUI had risen 25% from its low. In my opinion, the worst sin of a newsletter writer is to confuse readers with ambiguity or with all kinds of complicated scenarios that are impossible to follow. If I recommend buying a particular fund at 17, I will recommend buying more if it drops to 16. If I recommend selling some at 44, I will recommend selling more if it rises further to 45. If I am wrong, I will be wrong with bells on, loudly and clearly.
Now that you know what the service will NOT include, here is a list of what I WILL do my best to provide on a timely basis:
CONSISTENT, INTELLIGENT ANALYSIS: Regular readers of my web site know that I strongly value an easily understandable explanation of what the future will bring in the financial markets. Anyone can develop a plausible story of why something happened last month; very few can explain logically what will happen next month. If one understands how reliable patterns in the financial markets characteristically develop, then one can more confidently invest. Having a solid grasp of the underlying forces is critical in having the courage to add to a position which initially moves in the opposite direction.
TIMELY, CLEAR RECOMMENDATIONS: If a particular fund appears to be making an important bottom on a Thursday at 10:15 a.m., I will not wait until after it rallies 7% by the close and then release a useless update saying "you should have bought this morning". I will immediately send an email stating that it should be purchased NOW. As soon as possible, I will send a follow-up email listing exactly which funds to buy, in what proportion, and what percentage of your entire account should be devoted to the purchase. It is usually the case that bottoming or topping is a process, rather than an event, so that only a small percentage of one's total intended position should be committed at any given time. I will clearly identify why particular funds or shares are a better bargain at any given moment, and exactly what limit prices should be used, or whether market orders are preferable.
ALL POSITIONS WILL BE CLOSED IN A TIMELY FASHION: A huge percentage of newsletter writers are always recommending buying certain shares, but never seem to be selling them. Other writers mysteriously abandon positions which are performing poorly. To me, this is ridiculous. Knowing when to sell is often even more important than knowing when to buy, since profits don't really exist until something which has been bought is finally sold. Sometimes, the only correct action is to act swiftly and close out a position at a loss. All opening positions will always be diligently followed through all the way until they are closed, without exception.
A PRECISE PLAN OF ACTION WILL BE DEVELOPED: The financial markets often act in unexpected ways. Having a detailed plan of action, so that one responds intelligently to whatever happens, is usually far more important than any other factor in achieving success in the financial markets. I will explain how to establish long-term goals, and how to make periodic adjustments in order to achieve those objectives. The principles of money management, the ideal way to accumulate positions, and how to optimize one's asset allocation will all be discussed in detail.
ANY QUESTIONS? If you have any questions about this subscription service, or about anything else, click here to contact me, or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. I will gladly send a few recent daily updates upon request.
IF YOU ARE STILL INTERESTED, this subscription is being offered at $179.50 U.S. dollars per year. You can choose instead to pay $75 for a trial period of three months. All subscriptions are fully refundable for their pro-rated unused portion. If you decide to subscribe on October 23, 2014, then your subscription will continue through October 23, 2015. You will receive sufficient notice before expiration, so that you will be able to continue receiving your subscription without interruption. You can resubscribe at any time for as many years as you like; your expiration date will automatically be updated accurately by PayPal to reflect the full duration of the extension. For example, if your current expiration date is December 17, 2014 and you resubscribe today for two years, then your new expiration date will be December 17, 2016. Note #1: if you want your subscription to be sent to an email address which differs from your PayPal email address, please list your desired email address where it says "E-Mail Address, If Different:". Note #2: if you do not have an email address, then please do not subscribe. The reason is that any hardcopy equivalent would not be sufficiently timely. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like without charge during the lifetime of the subscription. Please understand that the information contained in the email is not intended to be resent to nonsubscribers or posted on any publicly accessible web site, and any such action if discovered will be considered as legally binding you to pay for a full-year subscription for each such nonsubscriber.
TO SUBSCRIBE: PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted no matter where you reside; simply click on the button below, which has a link to an official, secure PayPal page for payment. If you wish to subscribe for two or more years, please change the quantity from its default of "1" to your preferred number of years. If you prefer instead to send a check, then please send one from a U.S. bank or, if you wish, kindly remit a money order in U.S. dollars from any bank, U.S. or otherwise. My address is Steven Jon Kaplan, 300 Beech Street, Kearny, NJ 07032-3102, USA. Your subscription will begin as soon as payment is verified. If you are paying by check or money order, please make it payable to Steven Jon Kaplan, and be sure to include your email address (very important!).
Below are seven sample daily updates and two special intraday updates. I will be pleased to send additional daily and/or intraday updates upon request: